2024 Elections Could Shake Up the Global Supply Chain—Here’s Your Voter’s Guide

You may not be able to count on politicians’ promises, but one thing is certain no matter how the 2024 elections shake out: If you’re a supply chain senior exec and don’t know what your company’s design strategy for 2025 and 2026 is, YOU shouldn’t get re-elected.

With elections in roughly 50 countries worldwide and U.S. voting day right around the corner, supply chain executives must understand how major shifts in trade policies could impact their operations.

Critical Supply Chain Elements at Play in Election Years

• Political Uncertainty in the United States — The Democratic and Republican candidates express pretty similar views when it comes to trade policies: protectionist policies and inflationary spending programs. What will they actually do? Anybody’s guess. Trade with China and reshoring are all at the forefront of policymakers’ minds now, and both major presidential candidates in the United States are proposing substantial changes that could impact tariffs, trade barriers, and tax structures.

• International Elections — Wars in Europe and the Middle East, contained but for how long? Nationalism and populism are pushing extreme views from left and right, and pent-up economic unease after decades of unfettered globalization are shaping elections worldwide. Depending on the collective impact of upcoming elections worldwide, newly elected global leaders will undoubtedly begin to shift current paradigms, treaties, and policies. The cost of doing business everywhere will change.

• Economic Impact — Interest rates are expected to ease soon, which will stimulate investments, the housing market, and larger consumer purchases. If (when?) this happens, logistics companies may experience a robust peak shipping season. Cutting inventories to slim down may be exactly the wrong move. Companies need to remain agile to compete as they continue to adjust to this shifting economic—and socio-political landscape.

• Global Risks — The possibility of escalating conflicts in the South China Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Horn of Africa, along with other geopolitical risks, could also disrupt the energy markets—in addition to supply chains. This means creating proactive contingency plans that account for variables related to global political unrest is equally vital.

• Ongoing Port Congestion — Many factors threaten the operation of the busiest and most influential ports in the world with a rise in natural disasters, political unrest, and demand fluctuations.

How to Optimize Your Supply Chain for Election Outcomes

Going forward, supply chain strategy IS contingency planning. Supply chain executives today must have the capacity to envision and design future supply chains for the long-term viability of their company and career.

Supply chain design is the process of creating digital models of your future-state supply chain to accurately predict the performance of each design in terms of service, financials, and risk. Model it out before it happens.

Here are some tactics for using supply chain design to prepare for election outcomes.

Give Yourself a Supply Chain Design 360-Degree Health Assessment

The questions will never end. Before trying to tackle strategy questions, assess your capability to answer all supply chain design questions. What is our process for defining and spinning up projects? Who is responsible for the quality of the work? What is my current project lead time, and do I have enough bandwidth? Right technology? Trained people?

Assess your team before you send them out on the field!

Prepare for “What If” Situations

Create what-if scenarios for potential strategies (e.g., changes in taxes and tariffs, supplier shifts, alternate transportation modes, etc.) and simulate to understand long-term behavior and predict possible effects considering the variability present in supply chains.

Analyze Reshoring and Domestic Manufacturing

As more organizations seriously consider reshoring, nearshoring, and domestic manufacturing, these decisions carry weighty implications for supply chain design, from managing supplier networks (which could be multi-echelon and complex on their own) to impacting pricing and revenue management strategies in customer interactions.

Understand Breaking Points

Preparing for the election season requires designers to understand the structure and breaking points of their supply chains. Historical experience is a solid starting point for identifying these factors.

Understanding your organization’s unique supply chain strengths and weaknesses empowers you to enter any situation with confidence of a resilient, balanced supply chain design built to handle any disruption.

Gain Consumer Visibility

Smart supply chain design includes systematically reviewing inventory levels and demand patterns to understand the likelihood of shortages or obsolescence. Designers need technology solutions that enable them to analyze inventory positions, anticipate requirements based on future changes, and identify the buffers required to manage potential variable change.

As a supply chain executive, you cannot stay frozen waiting for the chips to fall in place, as when they do, it might be too late to react. Now is the time to model these potential changes and impacts on the supply chain.